Europe and its Neighbourhood 2017 – Conflict prevention and crisis management in the 21st Century


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Event Description:

Chatham House, Al Sharq Forum and the International Crisis Group will host the third annual conference on Europe and its Neighbourhood: Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management in the 21st Century, focusing on how countries across Europe and in its environs can address issues of common concern – security threats, current and emerging conflicts, migration and societal challenges – amidst a volatile and uncertain global order.

As Europe endures a period of significant transformation, the political climate appears to be characterized by a growing diffusion of power, a revival of geopolitics, uncertainty about previously entrenched alliance structures, heightened nationalism and ideological dogmatism, a sense of economic vulnerability, an increasing propensity for instability and conflict to seep across borders, and the erosion of traditional conflict resolution actors.

This year’s conference will bring together an array of perspectives – in terms of both discipline and national background – to discuss:

• The nature and gravity of the political, security and societal challenges facing Europe and its neighbourhood;

• How to address these, in the context of uncertainties and competing national interests;

• Strengthening Europe’s ability to project, promote and preserve stability in its peripheries;

• Balancing short-term tactical policy imperatives with long-term strategic goals.

Discussions will explore the premise that Europe’s traditional perceptions of itself – as a broadly homogenous entity and a stability-exerting force – no longer necessarily hold true. Nor too the notion that Europe, and the EU in particular, has the capacity – diplomatic, financial or military – to act alone. Solutions to the challenges facing Europe and its neighbourhood demand understanding the range of perceptions out there about Europe’s role in the world today, and embracing collective efforts to reach sustainable solutions to the benefit of all.

The Chatham House Rule 
To enable as open a debate as possible, this conference will be held under the Chatham House Rule.

Agenda

09:10 Monday 20 November

Welcome and chair’s opening remarks
Dr Robin Niblett CMG, Director, Chatham House

Opening address
Yanis Varoufakis, Professor of Economic Theory, University of Athens, and Minister of Finance, Greece (2015)

Questions and discussion

09:50 – 11:00 Session One | A Europe Distracted? Politics, the Future of the EU and What it Means for Europe’s Neighbourhood

As the raft of national elections in Europe comes to a conclusion and with Brexit negotiations well under way, this session will look at Europe’s capacity to meet common challenges and share the collective burden. Given Europe’s geography and other factors – including the demographics of its neighbourhood – failure to do so risks rebounding on the continent with considerable, and negative, consequences.

Is the sense of crisis that prevailed in previous years still prominent? What is its precise nature? How can European and EU political leadership effectively address a series of foreign policy imperatives – relations with Russia; shoring up long-term stability in its neighbourhood – while being seemingly preoccupied with domestic concerns and showing an inclination towards retrenchment and greater nationalism? And from where will political leadership emerge in a changing Europe?

Chair
Quentin Peel, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Speakers
Wadah Khanfar, President, Al Sharq Forum
Brad Staples, Chief Executive Officer, APCO Worldwide
Mark Malloch-Brown, Chairman, Smartmatic, and Chairman, International Crisis Group
Nora Müller, Executive Director, International Affairs, Körber-Stiftung

11:00 – 11:30 Refreshments

11:30 – 13:00 Session Two | Europe and Migration

There is potentially no other issue that has done more to highlight the divisions in Europe than migration and how to manage its effects politically, economically and socially. Policy-makers, under considerable domestic pressure, have struggled to formulate strategies that fully contain the perceived security threats of inward migration or address its underlying causes. An effective response to what will likely prove a permanent phenomenon – mass movement northwards – in an atmosphere of immediate crisis is a critical challenge for Europe. With a number of EU initiatives up and running – among them the deal with Ankara and a range of initiatives in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel – this session will examine their effectiveness to date, the cost at which they have been implemented, and the prospects for Europe’s ability to contribute to the global target of safe, orderly and regular migration.

Chair
Lindsey Hilsum, International Editor, Channel 4 News

Speakers
Louise Arbour, United Nations Special Representative for International Migration
Paolo Magri, Executive Vice President and Director, Italian Institute for International Political Studies 
Tarik Yousef, Director, Brookings Doha Center
Massimiliano Alvisini, General Manager, Europe and CIS Global Money Transfer, Western Union
Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, Founding President of the Middle East Research Institute

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

Breakout discussions

14:00 – 15:15 Discussion A | Russia and the West

This discussion will focus on the disagreement between Russia and the West, which appears to be irreconcilable as long as the current leadership in the Kremlin remains in power. With the economic and geopolitical pressures on the Kremlin likely to increase over the next five to ten years, what can be done to prepare for a potentially more harmonious post-Putin era in relations between Russia and the West? What connections need to be fostered, individually and institutionally? How will developments in Russia–US relations affect this? And what olive branches should be extended to an eventual successor to Putin?

Chair
James Nixey, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

Speakers
Andrey Sushentsov, Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Ivan Krastev, Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies
Kirk Bennett, retired US foreign service official
Magdalena Grono, Program Director, Europe & Central Asia, International Crisis Group

14:00 – 15:15 Discussion B | Power Dynamics in the Middle East: Strategic Relations and Influence in the Region

This discussion will focus on the balance of power between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iran, with an assessment of the levers of control and influence, in terms of individuals and primary power brokers, as well as the shape of strategic alliances within the region and globally.

Speakers

Lina Khatib, Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Michael Köhler, Director Neighbourhood, DG for Development Cooperation, European Commission

Lorenzo Kamel, Senior Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali 

Joseph Bahout, Visiting Scholar Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

14:00 – 15:15 Discussion C | North Africa: Egypt and Libya

This discussion will assess security challenges in the Mediterranean basin with a particular focus on Egypt and Libya, two vitally important countries in the region with a challenging local policy and security environment.

Speakers

Lurdes Vidal Bertran, Director of the Arab and Mediterranean World Department, IEMed

Issandr El Amrani, North Africa Project, International Crisis Group

Tim Eaton, Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

15:15 – 15:45 Afternoon refreshments

15:45 – 16:45 Session Four | Power dynamics in the Middle East: strategic relations and influence in the region

This discussion will focus on the balance of power between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iran, with an assessment of the levers of control and influence, in terms of individuals and primary power brokers, as well as the shape of strategic alliances within the region and globally.

Chair
Jane Kinninmont, Deputy Head and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Speakers
Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour, Head, Center for International Research and Education, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iran
Robert Malley, Vice President for Policy, International Crisis Group
H A Hellyer, Senior Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council and the Royal United Services Institute
Ellie Geranmayeh, Senior Policy Fellow (MENA), European Council on Foreign Relations
Galip Dalay, Research Director, Al Sharq Forum

16:45 – 18:00 Session Five | Security and Foreign Policy in the Context of Europe and its Neighbourhood

The issue of security has been brought into sharper relief by US demands for its NATO partners to contribute more to their own defence and questions over the future of the post-Second World War alliance, as well as the EU’s own approach to its collective security needs. Different conceptions abound as to what a European security and foreign policy might look like – from increased hard-edged capacities, to an expansion of the continent’s soft power.  This session will explore the contours of the debate, paying particular attention to how Europe might best balance the growing resort to kinetic counterterrorism operations with a renewed commitment to normative soft power, and the prospects for the EU and its regional partners, including Turkey, to better coordinate on security-related matters in the region.

Chair
Lyse Doucet, Chief International Correspondent, BBC

Speakers
Radosław Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Poland (2007-14)
Jean-Marie Guéhenno, President and CEO, International Crisis Group
Jana Puglierin, Head of Programme, Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies, German Council on Foreign Relations
18:00 End of conference and reception

Speakers:


Louise Arbour

Louise Arbour

United Nations Special Representative for International Migration
Louise Arbour

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    Jean-Marie Guehenno

    Jean-Marie Guehenno

    President & CEO, International Crisis Group
    Jean-Marie Guehenno

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      Galip Dalay

      Galip Dalay

      Research director at Al Sharq Forum
      Research director at Al Sharq Forum and senior associate fellow on Turkey and Kurdish Affairs at Al Jazeera Center for Studies.
      Galip Dalay

      Massimilliano Alvisini

      Massimilliano Alvisini

      General Manager, Europe and CIS Global Money Transfer, Western Union
      Massimilliano Alvisini

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        Michael Kohler

        Michael Kohler

        Director Neighbourhood, DG for Development Cooperation, European Commission
        Michael Kohler

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          Nora Muller

          Nora Muller

          Executive Director, International Affairs, Körber-Stiftung
          Nora Muller

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            Paolo Magri

            Paolo Magri

            Executive Vice President and Director, Italian Institute for International Political Studies
            Paolo Magri

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              Robert Malley

              Robert Malley

              Vice President for Policy, International Crisis Group
              Robert Malley

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                Yanis Varoufakis

                Yanis Varoufakis

                Professor of Economic Theory, University of Athens and Minister of Finance, Greece (2015)
                Yanis Varoufakis

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                  Lurdes Vidal Bertran

                  Lurdes Vidal Bertran

                  Director of the Arab and Mediterranean World Department, IEMed
                  Lurdes Vidal Bertran

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                    Kirk Bennett

                    Kirk Bennett

                    US Foreign Service (retd)
                    Kirk Bennett

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                      Brad Staples

                      Brad Staples

                      Chief Executive Officer, APCO Worldwide
                      Brad Staples

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                        Ellie Geranmayeh

                        Ellie Geranmayeh

                        Senior Policy Fellow (MENA), European Council on Foreign Relations
                        Ellie Geranmayeh

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                          H A Hellyer

                          H A Hellyer

                          Senior Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council and the Royal United Services Institute
                          H A Hellyer

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                            Ivan Krastev

                            Ivan Krastev

                            Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies
                            Ivan Krastev

                            Latest posts by Ivan Krastev (see all)


                              James Nixey

                              James Nixey

                              Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
                              James Nixey

                              Latest posts by James Nixey (see all)


                                Jana Puglierin

                                Jana Puglierin

                                Head of Programme, Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies, German Council on Foreign Relations
                                Jana Puglierin

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                                  Joseph Bahout

                                  Joseph Bahout

                                  Visiting Scholar Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
                                  Joseph Bahout

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                                    Lindsey Hilsum

                                    Lindsey Hilsum

                                    International Editor, Channel 4 News
                                    Lindsey Hilsum

                                    Latest posts by Lindsey Hilsum (see all)


                                      Lorenzo Kamel

                                      Lorenzo Kamel

                                      Senior Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali
                                      Lorenzo Kamel

                                      Latest posts by Lorenzo Kamel (see all)


                                        Lyse Doucet

                                        Lyse Doucet

                                        Chief International Correspondent, BBC
                                        Lyse Doucet

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                                          Magdalena Grono

                                          Magdalena Grono

                                          Program Director, Europe & Central Asia, International Crisis Group
                                          Magdalena Grono

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                                            Quentin Peel

                                            Quentin Peel

                                            Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House
                                            Quentin Peel

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                                              Radoslaw Sikorski

                                              Radoslaw Sikorski

                                              Senior Fellow at the Center of European Studies, Harvard University and Foreign Minister, Poland (2007-14)
                                              Radoslaw Sikorski

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                                                Ranj Alaaldin

                                                Ranj Alaaldin

                                                Visiting Fellow, Brookings Institute, Doha
                                                Ranj Alaaldin

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                                                  Sanam Vakil

                                                  Sanam Vakil

                                                  Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
                                                  Sanam Vakil

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                                                    Tim Eaton

                                                    Tim Eaton

                                                    Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
                                                    Tim Eaton

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                                                      Jana Puglierin

                                                      Jana Puglierin

                                                      Head of Programme, Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies, German Council on Foreign Relations
                                                      Jana Puglierin

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                                                        Brad Staples

                                                        Brad Staples

                                                        Chief Executive Officer, APCO Worldwide
                                                        Brad Staples

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                                                          Hemin Hawrami

                                                          Hemin Hawrami

                                                          Member, Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Head of KDP Foreign Relations Office
                                                          Hemin Hawrami

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                                                            Lina Khatib

                                                            Lina Khatib

                                                            Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
                                                            Lina Khatib

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                                                              Ivan Krastev

                                                              Ivan Krastev

                                                              Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies
                                                              Ivan Krastev

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                                                                Lord Mark Malloch-Brown

                                                                Lord Mark Malloch-Brown

                                                                Deputy Secretary-General, United Nations (2006), and Co-Chair, International Crisis Group
                                                                Lord Mark Malloch-Brown

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                                                                  Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour

                                                                  Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour

                                                                  Head, Center for International Research and Education, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iran
                                                                  Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour

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                                                                    Andrey Sushentsov

                                                                    Andrey Sushentsov

                                                                    Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relation
                                                                    Andrey Sushentsov

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